For Hillary Clinton, 'jury is out' on whether Good Friday Agreement needs to be adjusted

One of America's pre-eminent political figures for three decades, Hillary Rodham Clinton has been present at, and helped shape, some key moments in modern history.

This week the former US secretary of state, presidential candidate and first lady travelled to Belfast to commemorate the Good Friday Agreement (GFA).

A feat of international diplomacy that ended 30 years of sectarian violence and brought peace on the island of Ireland, it was a seismic event for Ireland and Great Britain and a defining moment in her husband's presidency.

I used the first part of our sit-down interview to ask the 75-year-old stateswoman about her reflections of that "hand of history" moment.

"I feel privileged to have been a witness to history, starting with my first visit with my husband, then the first sitting president to come to Northern Ireland in 1995 all the way to today," Mrs Clinton tells me in our interview at Queen's University in Belfast, where she has been chancellor since 2020.

She has travelled to Belfast with the other leaders who helped secure the Agreement - Tony Blair, Bertie Ahern, Gerry Adams, George Mitchell - to both reflect on what happened and think about, in her words, "what needs to continue to take place in order for Northern Ireland to have the best possible future".

Because while the Good Friday Agreement was hailed by former president Bill Clinton as a "work of genius" when it came to delivering peace, as politicians' mark its' 25th anniversary, there are obvious questions over whether it has delivered good government for the people of Northern Ireland.

For nine of the 25 years since the agreement was signed, Stormont has been shut down, with both unionists and nationalists consistently showing their willingness to collapse the Assembly when they don't get their own way.

Under the power-sharing arrangement enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement, any government must have representatives from both the nationalist community - who favour unity with the Republic of Ireland - and unionists, who want Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK.

That idea is that both communities have a vested interest in the system, but it also means either side has the power to collapse the government, as the DUP have done over their discontent with post-Brexit trading arrangements for Northern Ireland.

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has said his unionist party will not nominate any ministers to an executive until its concerns are resolved by the UK government.

With a political system that keeps stalling, against the backdrop of a Northern Ireland that is less sectarian, there is an obvious question about whether the Good Friday Agreement might adapt to make it harder for politicians to bring down the institutions of power sharing.

Tony Blair thinks so. The former prime minister has argued that the GFA needs to "amend and adjust" in order to better reflect a changing, less sectarian Northern Ireland.

For Mrs Clinton, the "jury's is out" on whether the agreement needs adjustment, as she urged the unionists to restore power sharing on the back of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Windsor Agreement, designed to improve the post-Brexit trade deal for Northern Ireland.

"I do think [the GFA] was a work of genius to end the conflict and create the structure for self-governance within the appropriate relationship with the UK. And I think that it has worked, except when leaders decided it would no longer work for their own reasons," she told me.

"The question is whether leaders themselves, the current generation of leaders, can restore confidence in the ability of the people of Northern Ireland to elect a government that will then actually govern or whether there does, as former prime minister Blair said, have to be some adjustments within the agreement itself. I think the jury is out on that because right now we're all hoping that they will stand up.

"I think it's very much in [the DUP's] interest [to get back to Stormont]."

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But beyond the current crisis, there is a broader question on whether an arrangement that gives effective power to either unionists or nationalists and entrenches sectarianism is still fit for purpose a generation on from its inception.

The non-sectarian Alliance Party - the third-largest in Northern Ireland - says the Agreement needs to move towards a more conventional democratic model involving simpler majorities and coalitions. Does Mrs Clinton agree?

"I'm a little bit 'wait and see', because all of these decisions should be made by the people of Northern Ireland themselves," she said.

"I do think that, you know, the Alliance Party, as you say, which has now become the third most popular party in terms of the numbers elected for the assembly has an important role to play. But the first order of business and I would urge the UK government to make it the first order is to get the government going again."

An international politician careful not to wade into the domestic affairs of the people of Northern Ireland.

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But the Good Friday Agreement anniversary punctuated by the collapse of power sharing has undoubtedly put reform on the agenda at this special event in Belfast to commemorate not just the deal but how power sharing and peace in Northern Ireland evolves from here.

When it came to the politics of the US ahead of the 2024 presidential race, Mrs Clinton was far more forthright, telling me in our interview that Donald Trump cannot win in 2024.

"I think more people are on to him and his behaviour than they were before," she explained when I asked her what she thought about Mr Trump running for president while under criminal indictment.

"He has a hardcore of support that is likely to help him win the Republican nomination, but in a general election against President Biden, I do not believe he can win."

Mrs Clinton also told me that the age of the "showman" was over as she weighed in behind President Joe Biden in a dig at not just Mr Trump but former prime minister Boris Johnson too.

Praising President Biden's work on Ukraine, his handling of China and him pushing through big pieces of domestic legislation, the former presidential candidate said he should be judged on substance rather than style.

"We're living in a time when a lot of people expect their leaders to be performers, not producers," she said.

"And so is he a performer, as we think of maybe one of your prior prime ministers or one of our prior presidents? No, that's not who he is. And thank God for that, because look at what he's getting done."

And as for her adversary Donald Trump, how does Mrs Clinton feel about the prospect of the man who back in 2016 accused her of lawbreaking - remember the "lock her up" chant - now facing the possibility of ending up behind bars?

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"I always thought about him - and if you follow him, I think you can see this as well - he accuses people of doing things he himself is doing," she said. "It's a form of psychological projection. And I always thought that his record… was someone who cared nothing about rules. He cares nothing about the laws."

A politician who suffered a crushing election defeat at the hands of an adversary that she believes has sown the seeds for his own downfall is no doubt satisfying for Mrs Clinton, who next year will have another ringside seat - and role - in an election of great consequence not just for the US but the rest of the world.